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When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting

Author

Listed:
  • Hachmi Ben Ameur

    (INSEEC - Institut des hautes études économiques et commerciales | School of Business and Economics)

  • Xuyuan Han
  • Zhenya Liu

    (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon)

  • Jonathan Peillex

    (LEFMI - Laboratoire d’Économie, Finance, Management et Innovation - UR UPJV 4286 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne)

Abstract

The global temperatures over the period 1850–1900 are widely used by academia and policymaker as a pre-industrial baseline to assess global warming, but there remains a clear need for a statistical study. Using Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) and the Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) records, this study builds a stochastic disorder model to determine the pre-industrial periods for regional and global warming. We find that warming in HadCET emerged in 1866–1872 and the average HadCET has increased by 0.48 °C thereafter. Warming in BEST began in 1905–1909 and the average BEST has subsequently climbed by 0.8096 °C. The comparative analysis demonstrates that our results minimize the risk of false detection. These results will help to improve carbon budgeting and facilitate sustainable development planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Hachmi Ben Ameur & Xuyuan Han & Zhenya Liu & Jonathan Peillex, 2022. "When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting," Post-Print hal-04077724, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04077724
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106005
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    Cited by:

    1. Ye, Huiying & Liao, Hua & Zheng, Guoliang & Peng, Ying, 2024. "Industrialization, environmental externality, and climate mitigation strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Renzo Seminario-Córdova & Raúl Rojas-Ortega, 2023. "Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Production: A Bibliometric Analysis of the Last Five Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-22, July.

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