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Le « modèle » allemand de croissance par les exportations est-il généralisable aux autres pays européens ?

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  • Éric Rugraff

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Au cours de ces dix dernières années l'Allemagne a accumulé un excédent commercial de plus de 1 500 milliards d'euros. Cet excédent est le reflet d'une « hyper-compétitivité » internationale fondée d'une part, et cela depuis le début des années 1950, sur sa compétitivité hors-prix, et d'autre part, depuis une dizaine d'année, sur une compétitivité-coût. Cette nouvelle compétitivité-coût résulte d'une grande modération salariale en Allemagne liée aux réformes du marché du travail des années 2000 et à la localisation depuis le milieu des années 1990, en Europe centrale, d'une part croissante des processus productifs (notamment dans le secteur automobile) qui sont ensuite réimportés sous forme de consommation intermédiaire en Allemagne. Cet article montre que ce « modèle » allemand ne doit pas être exporté vers les autres pays de l'UE : il risquerait, d'une part, de conduire les pays européens à jouer "un jeu de la demande" à somme négative qui déboucherait sur une explosion de la précarisation du travail, et d'autre part, à une détérioration de l'image de marque des produits européens, qui pousserait le reste du monde à s'en détourner.

Suggested Citation

  • Éric Rugraff, 2012. "Le « modèle » allemand de croissance par les exportations est-il généralisable aux autres pays européens ?," Post-Print hal-04031322, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04031322
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04031322
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    1. Angela Cheptea & Lionel Fontagné & Soledad Zignago, 2014. "European export performance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(1), pages 25-58, February.
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