Russian Agribusiness and the EEU in the Light of the War in Ukraine[L’agro-industrie russe et l’UEE à l’aune de la guerre en Ukraine : économie et géopolitique d’une industrie protégée de la concurrence internationale]

Sanctions against Russia are likely to have a negative impact on international food export markets, which could result in an increase in Russian agri-food exports to Central Asia. However, Russian aggression in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions are significantly deteriorating food security in Central Asia. In this context, it is not certain that Russia's strategy of building lasting trade imbalances with Central Asian countries through essentially non-tariff policies can be sustained. The latter could decide to deepen their food transformation. The Russian agricultural model, based on a powerful domestic market and massive exports, makes it a pivotal sector, although Russian agri-food trade is suffering from financial sanctions, but cereal exports are facing strong global demand. The sector will have to redirect its flows and undergo increased state control, but its weight in the national economy will be maintained