IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03829877.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Which Factors Matter Most? Can Startup Valuation be Micro-Targeted?

Author

Listed:
  • Max Berre

    (Audencia Business School, Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon, Université de Lyon, UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon, Business University Nyenrode - Nyenrode Business Universiteit)

Abstract

While startup valuations are influenced by revenues, risks, age, and macroeconomic conditions, specific causality is traditionally a black box. Because valuations are not disclosed, roles played by other factors (industry, geography, and intellectual property) can often only be guessed at. VC valuation research indicates the importance of establishing a factor-hierarchy to better understand startup valuations and their dynamics, suggesting the wisdom of hiring data-scientists for this purpose. Bespoke understanding can be established via construction of hierarchical prediction models based on decision trees and random forests. These have the advantage of understanding which factors matter most. In combination with OLS, the also tell us the circumstances of when specific causalities apply. This study explores the deterministic role of categorical variables on the valuation of start-ups (i.e. the joint-combination geographic, urban, and sectoral denomination-variables), in order to be able to build a generalized valuation scorecard approach. Using a dataset of 1,091 venture-capital investments, containing 1,044 unique EU and EEA, this study examines microeconomic, sectoral, and local-level impacts on startup valuation. In principle, the study relies on Fixedeffects and Joint-fixed-effects regressions as well as the analysis and exploration of divergent micropopulations and fault-lines by means of non-parametric approaches combining econometric and machinelearning techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Berre, 2022. "Which Factors Matter Most? Can Startup Valuation be Micro-Targeted?," Post-Print hal-03829877, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03829877
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03829877
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03829877/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    2. Huber, Martin & Imhof, David, 2019. "Machine learning with screens for detecting bid-rigging cartels," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 277-301.
    3. Thomas J. Chemmanur & Elena Loutskina & Xuan Tian, 2014. "Corporate Venture Capital, Value Creation, and Innovation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(8), pages 2434-2473.
    4. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
    5. Constantin Zopounidis & Emilios C. C Galariotis & Michael Doumpos & Stavroula Sarri & Kostas Andriosopoulos, 2015. "Multiple criteria decision aiding for finance: An updated bibliographic survey," Post-Print hal-02879842, HAL.
    6. Steven N. Kaplan & Berk A. Sensoy & Per Strömberg, 2009. "Should Investors Bet on the Jockey or the Horse? Evidence from the Evolution of Firms from Early Business Plans to Public Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 75-115, February.
    7. Popov, Alexander, 2009. "Does Finance Bolster Superstar Companies? Banks, Venture Capital, and Firm Size in Local U.S. Markets," Working Paper Series 1121, European Central Bank.
    8. Constantin Zopounidis & Emilios Galariotis & Michael Doumpos & Stavroula Sarri & Kostas Andriosopoulos, 2015. "Multiple criteria decision aiding for finance: An updated bibliographic survey," Post-Print hal-01183389, HAL.
    9. Gornall, Will & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2020. "Squaring venture capital valuations with reality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 120-143.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Max Berre, 2022. "Which Factors Matter Most? Can Startup Valuation be Micro-Targeted?," Papers 2210.14518, arXiv.org.
    2. Catarina Alexandra Neves Proença & Maria Elisabete Duarte Neves & Maria Castelo Baptista Gouveia & Mara Teresa Silva Madaleno, 2023. "Technological, healthcare and consumer funds efficiency: influence of COVID-19," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1-42, June.
    3. Matteo Aquilina & Giulio Cornelli & Marina Sanchez del Villar, 2024. "Regulation, information asymmetries and the funding of new ventures," BIS Working Papers 1162, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Jang Ho Kim & Yongjae Lee & Woo Chang Kim & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2022. "Goal-based investing based on multi-stage robust portfolio optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1141-1158, June.
    5. Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Multi-objective optimization using statistical models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 364-378.
    6. Alexander Cotte Poveda, 2012. "Estimating Effectiveness of the Control of Violence and Socioeconomic Development in Colombia: An Application of Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis and Data Panel Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 105(3), pages 343-366, February.
    7. Maria Elisabete Duarte Neves & Maria Do Castelo Gouveia & Catarina Alexandra Neves Proença, 2020. "European Bank’s Performance and Efficiency," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, April.
    8. Vittadini, Giorgio & Sturaro, Caterina & Folloni, Giuseppe, 2022. "Non-Cognitive Skills and Cognitive Skills to measure school efficiency," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Borenstein, Denis, 2018. "A simulation comparison of risk measures for portfolio optimization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 105-112.
    10. Veronese da Silva, Aline & Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Lopes-Ahn, Ana Lúcia, 2022. "Accounting multiple environmental variables in DEA energy transmission benchmarking modelling: The 2019 Brazilian case," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Xidonas, Panos & Doukas, Haris & Hassapis, Christis, 2021. "Grouped data, investment committees & multicriteria portfolio selection," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 205-222.
    12. Fernando A. F. Ferreira & Ieva Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė & Edmundas K. Zavadskas & Marjan S. Jalali & Sandra M. J. Catarino, 2019. "A Judgment-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Consumer Loans," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 7-33, January.
    13. Chen, Wang & Yang, Xinmin & Zhao, Yong, 2023. "Memory gradient method for multiobjective optimization," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 443(C).
    14. Wątróbski, Jarosław & Jankowski, Jarosław & Ziemba, Paweł & Karczmarczyk, Artur & Zioło, Magdalena, 2019. "Generalised framework for multi-criteria method selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 107-124.
    15. Yue Qi & Ralph E. Steuer, 2020. "On the analytical derivation of efficient sets in quad-and-higher criterion portfolio selection," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 293(2), pages 521-538, October.
    16. Fernando A. F. Ferreira & Sérgio P. Santos, 2021. "Two decades on the MACBETH approach: a bibliometric analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 296(1), pages 901-925, January.
    17. Jain, Ritika, 2017. "Public sector enterprise disinvestment in India: Efficiency gains in a political context," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-36.
    18. Nomeda Dobrovolskienė & Rima Tamošiūnienė, 2016. "Sustainability-Oriented Financial Resource Allocation in a Project Portfolio through Multi-Criteria Decision-Making," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-18, May.
    19. Wei, Zixiang & Han, Botang & Pan, Xiuzhen & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zafar, Muhammad Wasif, 2020. "Effects of diversified openness channels on the total-factor energy efficiency in China's manufacturing sub-sectors: Evidence from trade and FDI spillovers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. Leonardo Rocha Andrade & Leonardo Q. Cardenas & Fernando Dias Lopes & Fernando P. S. Oliveira & Kaio Cesar Fernandes, 2018. "The Impact of R&D Investments on Performance of Firms in Different Degrees of Proximity to the Technological Frontier," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1156-1170.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03829877. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.