Does trust in government improve Covid-19's crisis management?

Countries have adopted several measures to control the spread of Covid-19. However, substantial differences remain in terms of performance in controlling the virus, potentially due to heterogeneity in citizen engagement with government measures. Although the literature documents the effects of trust in government on compliance with health restrictions related to the health crisis, little is said about the direct effect of trust in government on managing the Covid-19 crisis, defined as the number of cases and deaths. Drawing on this observation, this paper seeks to analyze the effect of pre-crisis ties, particularly trust in government, on crisis management, proxied by the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths per million population. We examine this question based on a sample of 41 countries for which data are available and using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. Results reveal that a high level of trust in government predicts better crisis management in terms of relatively low levels of cases and deaths. These results, which successfully pass a series of robustness tests, may vary according to level of contamination and increase with time. This paper, therefore, suggests that building trust between the public and the authorities, essentially governments and citizens, is essential for crisis management, taking the example of the Covid-19 pandemic.