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Growth impact of climate change and response policies: The advanced climate change long-term (ACCL) model

Author

Listed:
  • Claire Alestra

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Gilbert Cette

    (NEOMA - Neoma Business School)

  • Valérie Chouard

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Rémy Lecat

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

This paper provides a tool to build climate change scenarios to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP), modelling both GDP damage due to climate change and the GDP impact of mitigating measures. It adopts a supply-side, long-term view, with 2060 and 2100 horizons. It is a global projection tool (30 countries/regions), with assumptions and results both at the world and the country/regional level. Five different types of energy inputs are taken into account according to their CO2 emission factors. Full calibration is possible at each stage, with estimated or literature-based default parameters. Compared to other models, it provides a comprehensive modelisation of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which is the most significant determinant of the GDP projected path. We present simulation results of different energy policy scenarios. They illustrate both the "tragedy of the horizon" and the "tragedy of the commons", which call for a policy framework that adequately integrates a long run perspective, through a low-enough discount rate and an effective intergenerational solidarity as well as international cooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Claire Alestra & Gilbert Cette & Valérie Chouard & Rémy Lecat, 2022. "Growth impact of climate change and response policies: The advanced climate change long-term (ACCL) model," Post-Print hal-03702357, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03702357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.10.001
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-03702357
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    Cited by:

    1. Aiello, Maria Alessia & Angelico, Cristina, 2023. "Climate change and credit risk: The effect of carbon tax on Italian banks' business loan default rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 187-201.
    2. Opoku, Eric Evans Osei & Acheampong, Alex O., 2023. "Energy justice and economic growth: Does democracy matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 160-186.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate; Global warming; Energy prices; Environmental policy; Growth; Productivity; Long-term projections;
    All these keywords.

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