Impact du Grand Paris Express sur le marché du travail et le marché du logement

Through Grand Paris Express Project (GPE), the urban area of Paris develops new transport infrastructures that will double the current size of its subway network. We develop a new model in order to understand the impact of such a dramatic change in a framework where the labour market is frictionnal and the housing market dual, between a free sector where prices/rent are set freely and a sector where rents are controlled. We use the prediction provided by the team of the Societé du Grand Paris of an average gain of 3% of time/penibility/financial costs of transport combined with several scenarii of population growth. The model predicts either a growth of the total number of jobs or a drop of the rent in the city center. One the one hand, if new construction follows the improvement of the transport infrastructure allowing for new households to move in, the total number of jobs created is around 160 000. On the other hand, in a more malthusianist scenario where the housing supply does not adjust, employment gains will be limited and most of the benefits will come from a drop in the rent at the city center resulting from a lower demand for dwellings dose to the City Business District. If the welfare of households increase, only about 3000 jobs will be created. All the figures provided in this policy brief are deviation from the trend in the absence of new transport infrastructures while maintaining their current quality constant.