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A Momentary Lapse of Reason? Assessing the Pre- and Post-Brexit Preferences of UK Citizens

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Azmat Hayat
  • Ifrah Siddique
  • Etienne Farvaque

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We analyze the persistence of the major determinants of distrust toward the European Union (EU) and pro-Brexit voting attitudes of citizens of the United Kingdom. Looking both backward and forward, our analysis confirms that Euroscepticism is deep-rooted, although the data reveal differences across different parts of the country. We observe no major transformation in the favor of the EU over the last two decades or in the post-referendum period. We also carry out an age-period-cohort analysis by interacting age and cohort effects with time to analyze the evolution of individual preferences. We find that an aging population will promote Eurosceptic assertiveness. We then implement a demographic forecasting analysis to predict whether the level of distrust of older cohorts can be offset by differing attitudes among younger cohorts in the future. On the contrary, we find that demographic trends will tend to strengthen distrust in the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Ifrah Siddique & Etienne Farvaque, 2021. "A Momentary Lapse of Reason? Assessing the Pre- and Post-Brexit Preferences of UK Citizens," Post-Print hal-03592759, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03592759
    DOI: 10.11130/jei.2021.36.3.372
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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

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