La politique budgétaire inversée

In 2004 the positive growth differential between the United States and the euro zone is maintained through a more accommodating fiscal policy. Benefiting from a rate of growth above potential, the American fiscal authorities can afford carrying on a loose fiscal stance with a limited deterioration of the public deficit. In the euro zone, the weak increase in economic growth is accompanied by a slightly restrictive fiscal policy, which will not prevent the euro zone public deficit from breaching the 3% limit of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). An improvement in euro zone public finances will occur from 2005, sustained by faster growth, while the fiscal stance will remain slightly negative. An abrupt tightening of the fiscal stance carried out by the American authorities will reduce the growth differential with the euro zone in 2005.