Perspectives à moyen terme des finances sociales de la France

The crisis of the social security system is a recurrent theme of the political and social agenda in France. After the 1993's recession an important deficit surged again. A new debate started about the long term of the system. Some people argue that the cost of the social security system is not sustainable in the future and they propose to put a strict limit to the growth rate of social expenses by reducing the extend of the system and concentrating the benefits on the less favored part of the population. This evolution would oblige the healthiest to find individual solutions through private retirement plans and private health plans. But the long term prospects show that the financial equilibrium of the system could be reached with a limited increase in the contributions : if the growth rate of the economy reached 2 % per year from 1995 to 2002, the financial shortage would amount of only 1.5 point of General Social Contribution (CSG in French). So, the need for a fundamental change in the general framework of the system is not obvious at all. The reform decided by the government in November 1995, reinforces the basic choice of a universal Social security system and does not make any important change in the general design of the system. As a consequence, it consists in an increase in contributions and in an attempt to reduce the cost of health insurance without reducing benefits. But, on the contribution side, the effort weighs more on some categories than on some others (specially retired people and families with children). The fairness of the reform is not clearly established and the need for a general fiscal reform exist. This new reform would aimt at clarifying and increasing the fairness of the distribution of contributions over the social categories.