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L’exubérance rationnelle de l’immobilier

Author

Listed:
  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

House prices have risen strongly since 1997 in France, like in many other developed countries. Indeed, housing supply has not been strong enough to answer a buoyant demand. Household demand for housing has been mainly boosted by falling interest rates and a lengthening of loan duration, but also by demographic factors and foreign investment. The increase in house prices seems therefore justified and not the sign of a speculative bubble, like in Paris at the beginning of the 1990s. This is confirmed by the analysis of housing yields: due to the inertia of rent prices, rates of return on housing have decreased but not as much as long-term interest rates, thus remaining slightly higher than bonds yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabine Le Bayon & Hervé Péléraux, 2006. "L’exubérance rationnelle de l’immobilier," Post-Print hal-03462177, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03462177
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.096.0083
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03462177
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