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France : le coût d’outre-Rhin

Author

Listed:
  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Marion Cochard
  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

In 2005, France has experienced a low rate of growth (1.4%), which was mainly caused by the negative contribution of the external balance (–1%). But we still believe in a rebound, with growth rates at 2.2% in 2006 and 2.1% in 2007. The upward trend in business surveys that started in early 2005 continues into the beginning of this year. With the depreciation of the euro exchange rate, the position of French export order book has improved. The restored financial situation allows firms to borrow. Combined with the decrease of the unemployment, this boosts internal demand. In 2007, German competitive disinflation will be enforced by a decrease in the social contributions and an increase in the VAT. This non-cooperative policy will be the main cause of the growth slowdown in France next year.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Chevillon & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Eric Heyer & Marion Cochard & Matthieu Lemoine, 2006. "France : le coût d’outre-Rhin," Post-Print hal-03462153, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03462153
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.097.89
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03462153
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