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Zone euro : serrez les rangs !

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

Abstract

Due to the financial crisis, GDP declined by 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008. Consumption and investment decreased under lower indebtedness, leading to a severe adjustment on labour markets. Moreover, the recession was amplified by international developments and exports were strongly cut back. This situation is expected to continue in 2009 and GDP would fall by 3.3 %. The return to a positive quarterly growth would only occur from the second quarter of 2010 onwards. But investment would remain in a downward phase and households would still increase their savings, because of wealth effects. GDP would decrease by 0.3% in 2010, contrary to the United States where monetary and fiscal policies have been more reactive and aggressive.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine, 2009. "Zone euro : serrez les rangs !," Post-Print hal-03461782, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03461782
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.109.0171
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03461782
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