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Nairu en zone heureuse

Author

Listed:
  • Frédéric Reynés
  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The aim of this special study consists in estimating the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the aggregated euro area, France, Italy and Germany. An equation, estimated with the Kalman filter, relates the inflation variation with the terms of trade and the gap between the unemployment and the Nairu. The basic model, where the Nairu is specified as a random walk, shows bad forecasting properties. With this model, the forecasted unemployment rate would become lower than the Nairu before 2008. Another model relates the Nairu with the unemployment rate. This relation is significant for all countries and is interpreted as a hysteresis effect. Moreover, this model forecasts lower values of the Nairu and, for this reason, we do not expect inflation tensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Reynés & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2007. "Nairu en zone heureuse," Post-Print hal-03459585, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03459585
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.101.0227
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459585
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    Keywords

    Taux de chômage; Nairu; Zone euro; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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