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Trois questions autour de l'impact à court terme des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paul Hubert

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Ce travail évalue différentes caractéristiques de l'impact de l'évolution du prix du baril de pétrole sur l'activité économique en France. Nous montrons qu'il existe un décalage de cet impact sur le PIB, qui serait en moyenne, sur la période 1985-2015, de 4 trimestres. L'effet, à la baisse comme la hausse, n'est significatif que pour des variations des prix du pétrole supérieures à 1 écart-type. L'effet asymétrique est extrêmement faible : l'effet est identique dans le cas d'une hausse ou d'une baisse de ce dernier.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer & Paul Hubert, 2016. "Trois questions autour de l'impact à court terme des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française," Post-Print hal-03459302, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03459302
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.147.0195
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459302
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    Cited by:

    1. Othmani, Abdelhafidh & Ben Yedder, Nadia & Bakari, Sayef, 2023. "The Cointegration Relationship between Patent, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in United States of America," MPRA Paper 118245, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pétrole; Décalage; Inertie; Non-linéarité au cycle; Asymétrie;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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