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Potentiels moins freinés

Author

Listed:
  • Frédéric Reynés
  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Basing upon OECD's estimates of potential output growth for France (1.9%), Germany (1.5%) and Italy (1.3%), we investigate the permanent nature of such a divergence. Potential output estimates based on filtering techniques extrapolate temporary evolutions in productivity and labour force which may be irrelevant when projecting growth on a longer time horizon. We correct for this sample's end bias by using assumptions on the long term evolution of the main demographic and economic variables, which are consistent with the medium-term equilibrium of reformed social protection systems. Potential growth is expected to slow down to 1,7% by 2050 in France and to 1,1% in Germany and Italy. The most recent upward revisions of population growth in France and Italy account for respectively 0,3 and 0,1 point of higher growth in 2050 as compared to previous projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Reynés & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2006. "Potentiels moins freinés," Post-Print hal-03459221, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03459221
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.099.0207
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459221
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    Keywords

    Croissance; Pays de l'OCDE; Productivité; Population active;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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