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Monetary policy and exchange rates: conflicting effects
[Politique monétaire et taux de change : mesure et contre-mesures]

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Stancanelli

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hélène Baudchon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Gael Dupont

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah
  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The tightening cycle is going on, but bonds markets have unexpectedly gone in the opposite direction and imbalances have further aggravated. This is a cause of concern for Central Banks, which have to slow down growth without derailing it, while oil prices are climbing to new heights. The Federal Reserve will gently but forcefully increase the federal funds rate till 4 %. The ECB will not change its policy to spur euro zone lagging growth. The Bank of England will prefer the wait and see attitude to fine tune the softening of the housing bubble. No move is expected from the Bank of Japan without any end in sight of deflation. The euro will appreciate to $1,34 at the end of 2005 and thereafter depreciate to $1,25 thanks to a slight improvement of the US current account deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Stancanelli & Guillaume Chevillon & Hélène Baudchon & Gael Dupont & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau & Eric Heyer &, 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange rates: conflicting effects [Politique monétaire et taux de change : mesure et contre-mesures]," Post-Print hal-03458928, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03458928
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.093.0199
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458928v1
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