Tensions under control[Pressions dominées]

Output growth is robust in almost all areas of the world, with world GDP expected to rise by 5% in 2004 and 4% in 2005. Growth will remain buoyant in emerging Asian economies although it is expected to slightly decelerate under the effects of the recent strong increases of oil and industrial raw materials prices. The effect of oil prices on industrial economies will be limited, with US output growth to be cut by 0.3% this year. US monetary conditions will remain accommodative despite rising interest rates, while the fiscal stance will become slightly restrictive in 2005. US GDP will rise by 3.5%, the imbalances on the US budget and current accounts remaining unchanged. Euro area GDP growth will reach 2.4 %, with monetary policy staying accommodative at the area level and the fiscal stance being almost neutral.