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Pétrole : chronique d’un effondrement

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  • Céline Antonin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Entre début mars et fin avril 2020, les barils de Brent et de Western Texas Intermediate ont perdu respectivement 71 % et 73 % de leur valeur en dollars. Deux chocs concomitants sont à l'origine de cette dégringolade. D'abord, le choc de demande lié à la crise du Covid-19 a commencé par la baisse de la croissance chinoise dès la fin du mois de janvier 2020 et a été amplifié par l'extension mondiale des mesures de confinement à partir de la mi-mars. Parallèlement, un choc d'offre, né des dissensions au sein de l'OPEP+, est intervenu début mars, aggravant le déséquilibre entre offre et demande. Les pays de l'OPEP+ ont fini par signer un accord historique de baisse de production de près de 10 %, en vigueur à partir du 1er mai 2020. Pourtant, cette baisse de production est apparue insuffisante pour soutenir les prix du pétrole et le décalage entre offre et demande a continué de grever le niveau des prix. [Premier paragraphe]

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  • Céline Antonin, 2020. "Pétrole : chronique d’un effondrement," Post-Print hal-03403044, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03403044
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03403044
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    Keywords

    Pétrole; COVID-19; Prix; Baisse de production;
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