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When Keynes goes to Brussels : a new fiscal rule for the EMU : is it desirable ?

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  • Francesco Saraceno

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) institutions are consistent with a New Consensus that emerged in the 1980s, limiting the role for macroeconomic policy to short term stabilizations by means of rules. I will argue that the policy inertia induced by the Consensus may have played a role in the disappointing performance of EMU economies even before the crisis. The crisis of the Consensus, and the debate on secular stagnation, proved that Keynesian and possibly persistent excesses of savings over investment may hamper growth. This has put fiscal policy back to the center of the scene, and given the General Theory, at eighty, a second youth. I will argue therefore that the EMU fiscal rule should be amended to allow semi-permanent negative government savings. I will finally argue that a modified Golden Rule may serve this objective, and allow EU-wide policy coordination. This seems the only reasonable reform with some chances of being adopted by the EU divided policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "When Keynes goes to Brussels : a new fiscal rule for the EMU : is it desirable ?," Post-Print hal-03389109, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03389109
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    Cited by:

    1. Céline Antonin & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano & Francesco Vona, 2019. "Italy : escaping the high-debt and low-growth trap," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Francesco Saraceno, 2022. "Here to Stay? The Return of Fiscal Policy and Challenges for the EU Governance," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 13(1-2).
    3. Massimo Amato & Francesco Saraceno, 2022. "Squaring the circle: How to guarantee fiscal space and debt sustainability with a European Debt Agency," Working Papers hal-03554212, HAL.
    4. Massimo Amato & Francesco Saraceno, 2022. "Squaring the circle: How to guarantee fiscal space and debt sustainability with a European Debt Agency," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22172, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Massimo Amato & Francesco Saraceno, 2022. "Squaring the circle: How to guarantee fiscal space and debt sustainability with a European Debt Agency," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03554212, HAL.
    6. Francesco Saraceno, 2021. "The Return of Fiscal Policy: Eurozone Macroeconomic Governance after Covid," Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. An Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics, History and Political Science, Fondazione Luigi Einaudi, Torino (Italy), vol. 55(2), pages 191-208, December.

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