IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03188186.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the stochastic dynamics of transitions between states in social systems incorporating self-organization and memory

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry Zhukov

    (EM - EMLyon Business School)

  • Tatiana Khvatova
  • Carla Millar
  • Anastasia Zaltcman

Abstract

This conceptual research presents a new stochastic model of the dynamics of state-to-state transitions in social systems, the Zhukov–Khvatova model. Employing a mathematical approach based on percolation theory the model caters for random changes, system memory and self-organisation. Curves representing the approach of the system to the percolation threshold differ significantly from the smooth S-shaped curves predicted by existing models, showing oscillations, steps and abrupt steep gradients. The modelling approach is new, working with system level parameters, avoiding reference to node-level changes and modelling a non-Markov process by including self-organisation and the effects (memory) of previous system states over a configurable number of time intervals. Computational modelling is used to demonstrate how the percolation threshold (i.e. the share of nodes which allows information to spread freely within the network) is reached. Possible applications of the model discussed include modelling the dynamics of viewpoints in society during social unrest and elections, changing attitudes in social networks and forecasting the outcome of promotions or uptake of campaigns. The easy availability of system level data (network connectivity, evolving system penetration) makes the model a particularly valuable addition to the toolkit for social sciences, politics, and potentially marketing.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Zhukov & Tatiana Khvatova & Carla Millar & Anastasia Zaltcman, 2020. "Modelling the stochastic dynamics of transitions between states in social systems incorporating self-organization and memory," Post-Print hal-03188186, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03188186
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Zhonghuan & Duan, Chunlin & Cui, Yuting & Qin, Rong, 2023. "Consumers' attitudes toward low-carbon consumption based on a computational model: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    2. Zhao, Jianyu & Yu, Lean & Xi, Xi & Li, Shengliang, 2023. "Knowledge percolation threshold and optimization strategies of the combinatorial network for complex innovation in the digital economy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Dmitry Zhukov & Julia Perova & Vladimir Kalinin, 2022. "Description of the Distribution Law and Non-Linear Dynamics of Growth of Comments Number in News and Blogs Based on the Fokker-Planck Equation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Zhukov, Dmitry & Khvatova, Tatiana & Millar, Carla & Andrianova, Elena, 2022. "Beyond big data – new techniques for forecasting elections using stochastic models with self-organisation and memory," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03188186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.