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Modeling Time-Varying Conditional Betas. A Comparison of Methods with Application for REITs

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Aloy

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Floris Laly

    (Louvain School of Management (LFIN‐LIDAM, UCLouvain))

  • Sébastien Laurent

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Aix-Marseille Graduate School of Management)

  • Christelle Lecourt

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Beta coefficients are the cornerstone of asset pricing theory in the CAPM and multiple factor models. This chapter proposes a review of different time series models used to estimate static and time-varying betas, and a comparison on real data. The analysis is performed on the USA and developed Europe REIT markets over the period 2009–2019 via a two-factor model. We evaluate the performance of the different techniques in terms of in-sample estimates as well as through an out-of-sample tracking exercise. Results show that dynamic models clearly outperform static models and that both the state space and autoregressive conditional beta models outperform the other methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Aloy & Floris Laly & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2021. "Modeling Time-Varying Conditional Betas. A Comparison of Methods with Application for REITs," Post-Print hal-03103717, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03103717
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-54252-8_9
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    Keywords

    real estate; REITs; multivariate GARCH; state space; dynamic conditional beta; autoregressive conditional beta;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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