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The first-mover advantage in penalty shoot-outs: Really?
[Existe-t-il un avantage à commencer la séance de tirs au but au football ?]

Author

Listed:
  • Luc Arrondel

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Richard Duhautois

    (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM], CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé)

  • Jean-François Laslier

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

The paper analyses sequences of penalty kicks during football shoot-outs in French cup competitions. We consider the psychological effects to which the kicker is subject: the "fear" of winning, the "fear" of losing, and the "fear" of catching up his opponent. Our main conclusion is that the performance (the probability of scoring) is negatively affected by both what is at stake and the difficulty of the situation. We find no advantage for the team that takes the first kick.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Arrondel & Richard Duhautois & Jean-François Laslier, 2020. "The first-mover advantage in penalty shoot-outs: Really? [Existe-t-il un avantage à commencer la séance de tirs au but au football ?]," Post-Print hal-03095074, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03095074
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03095074
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