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Fire Sales Forensics: Measuring Endogenous Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Rama Cont

    (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Lakshithe Wagalath

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We propose a tractable framework for quantifying the impact of loss‐triggered fire sales on portfolio risk, in a multi‐asset setting. We derive analytical expressions for the impact of fire sales on the realized volatility and correlations of asset returns in a fire sales scenario and show that our results provide a quantitative explanation for the spikes in volatility and correlations observed during such deleveraging episodes. These results are then used to develop an econometric framework for the forensic analysis of fire sales episodes, using observations of market prices. We give conditions for the identifiability of model parameters from time series of asset prices, propose a statistical test for the presence of fire sales, and an estimator for the magnitude of fire sales in each asset class. Pathwise consistency and large sample properties of the estimator are studied in the high‐frequency asymptotic regime. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to the forensic analysis of two recent deleveraging episodes: the Quant Crash of August 2007 and the Great Deleveraging following the default of Lehman Brothers in Fall 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Rama Cont & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2016. "Fire Sales Forensics: Measuring Endogenous Risk," Post-Print hal-03003955, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03003955
    DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12071
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramadiah, Amanah & Caccioli, Fabio & Fricke, Daniel, 2019. "Reconstructing and stress testing credit networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118938, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2019. "Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(6), pages 1336-1361, December.
    3. Eyal Neuman & Moritz Vo{ss}, 2021. "Trading with the Crowd," Papers 2106.09267, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    4. Roy Cerqueti & Rocco Ciciretti & Ambrogio Dalò & Marco Nicolosi, 2022. "Mitigating Contagion Risk by ESG Investing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, March.
    5. Kevin Primicerio & Damien Challet & Stanislao Gualdi, 2021. "Collective rationality and functional wisdom of the crowd in far-from-rational institutional investors," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 153-171, January.
    6. Lakshithe Wagalath, 2017. "Lost In Contagion? Building A Liquidation Index From Covariance Dynamics," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-26, February.
    7. Michel Baes & Eric Schaanning, 2023. "Reverse stress testing: Scenario design for macroprudential stress tests," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 209-256, April.
    8. Mika J. Straka & Guido Caldarelli & Tiziano Squartini & Fabio Saracco, 2017. "From Ecology to Finance (and Back?): Recent Advancements in the Analysis of Bipartite Networks," Papers 1710.10143, arXiv.org.
    9. Cerqueti, Roy & Ciciretti, Rocco & Dalò, Ambrogio & Nicolosi, Marco, 2021. "ESG investing: A chance to reduce systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2017. "Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 3010, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Corsi, Fulvio & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide & Trapin, Luca, 2018. "Measuring the propagation of financial distress with Granger-causality tail risk networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-36.
    12. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    13. Nils Detering & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Konstantinos Panagiotou & Daniel Ritter, 2020. "Suffocating Fire Sales," Papers 2006.08110, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    14. Hezhi Luo & Yuanyuan Chen & Xianye Zhang & Duan Li & Huixian Wu, 2020. "Effective Algorithms for Optimal Portfolio Deleveraging Problem with Cross Impact," Papers 2012.07368, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    15. Gandy, Axel & Veraart, Luitgard A. M., 2021. "Compound poisson models for weighted networks with applications in finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104185, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Martin Keller-Ressel & Stephanie Nargang, 2020. "The hyperbolic geometry of financial networks," Papers 2005.00399, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    17. Valentina Macchiati & Giuseppe Brandi & Tiziana Di Matteo & Daniela Paolotti & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2022. "Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 443-474, April.
    18. Nelson Vadori & Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2019. "Inhomogeneous Random Evolutions: Limit Theorems and Financial Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-62, May.
    19. Wu, Qi & Yan, Xing, 2019. "Capturing deep tail risk via sequential learning of quantile dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    20. Sadamori Kojaku & Giulio Cimini & Guido Caldarelli & Naoki Masuda, 2018. "Structural changes in the interbank market across the financial crisis from multiple core-periphery analysis," Papers 1802.05139, arXiv.org.
    21. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    22. Braouezec, Yann & Wagalath, Lakshithe, 2019. "Strategic fire-sales and price-mediated contagion in the banking system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1180-1197.
    23. Yuji Sakurai & Tetsuo Kurosaki, 2020. "A simulation analysis of systemic counterparty risk in over-the-counter derivatives markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 243-281, January.

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