IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02953269.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Accelerated Failure Time Models: An Application in Insurance Attrition
[Modèles de temps de défaillance accéléré: une application dans l'attrition de l'assurance]

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul-Fatawu Majeed

    (UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

Despite the seeming power of survival analysis over popular binary models in insurance attrition analysis, its consideration is now growing in the literature. Besides, studies have only considered the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards model. To our knowledge, no single study has modeled insurance attrition using the accelerated failure time model. This study presents some parametric models in survival analysis, specifically, the accelerated failure time model. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of this model in analyzing insurance attrition using life insurance data. We show for the first time that the accelerated failure time model offers an attractive alternative to the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and the Cox proportional hazards model in estimating insurance attrition. Based on the Akaike information criterion, the generalized gamma model provides the best fit for the data. This work will serve as the basis for the consideration of parametric survival models in estimating insurance attrition, deepen knowledge in retention analysis, and broaden the scope of survival analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul-Fatawu Majeed, 2020. "Accelerated Failure Time Models: An Application in Insurance Attrition [Modèles de temps de défaillance accéléré: une application dans l'attrition de l'assurance]," Post-Print hal-02953269, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02953269
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-pau.hal.science/hal-02953269
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://univ-pau.hal.science/hal-02953269/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K A Smith & R J Willis & M Brooks, 2000. "An analysis of customer retention and insurance claim patterns using data mining: a case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(5), pages 532-541, May.
    2. Jean Pinquet & Montserrat Guillén & Mercedes Ayuso, 2011. "Commitment and Lapse Behavior in Long‐Term Insurance: A Case Study," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 78(4), pages 983-1002, December.
    3. repec:eme:jrfpps:v:14:y:2013:i:2:p:392-413 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Changki Kim, 2005. "Modeling Surrender and Lapse Rates With Economic Variables," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 56-70.
    5. Outreville, J. Francois, 1990. "Whole-life insurance lapse rates and the emergency fund hypothesis," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 249-255, December.
    6. J Banasik & J N Crook & L C Thomas, 1999. "Not if but when will borrowers default," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(12), pages 1185-1190, December.
    7. Martin Eling & Dieter Kiesenbauer, 2014. "What Policy Features Determine Life Insurance Lapse? An Analysis of the German Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(2), pages 241-269, June.
    8. Weiyu Kuo & Chenghsien Tsai & Wei‐Kuang Chen, 2003. "An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate: The Cointegration Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 489-508, September.
    9. Xavier Milhaud & Christophe Dutang, 2018. "Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach," Post-Print hal-01727669, HAL.
    10. Patrick L. Brockett & Linda L. Golden & Montserrat Guillen & Jens Perch Nielsen & Jan Parner & Ana Maria Perez‐Marin, 2008. "Survival Analysis of a Household Portfolio of Insurance Policies: How Much Time Do You Have to Stop Total Customer Defection?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 713-737, September.
    11. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    12. Martin Eling & Michael Kochanski, 2013. "Research on lapse in life insurance: what has been done and what needs to be done?," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 392-413, August.
    13. Xavier Milhaud & Christophe Dutang, 2018. "Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach," Post-Print hal-01985256, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kung, Ko-Lun & Hsieh, Ming-Hua & Peng, Jin-Lung & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason & Wang, Jennifer L., 2021. "Explaining the risk premiums of life settlements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Christian Knoller & Gunther Kraut & Pascal Schoenmaekers, 2016. "On the Propensity to Surrender a Variable Annuity Contract: An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Policyholder Behavior," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 979-1006, December.
    3. Srbinoski Bojan & Strozzi Fernanda & Poposki Klime & Born Patricia H., 2020. "Trends in Life Insurance Demand and Lapse Literature," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-46, July.
    4. Mathias Valla & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Ayodélé Olympio, 2023. "Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and competing risks in tree-based lapse management strategies," Post-Print hal-03903047, HAL.
    5. Schaper, Philipp, 2017. "Under pressure: how the business environment affects productivity and efficiency of European life insurance companiesAuthor-Name: Eling, Martin," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 1082-1094.
    6. Gemmo, Irina & Götz, Martin, 2016. "Life insurance and demographic change: An empirical analysis of surrender decisions based on panel data," ICIR Working Paper Series 24/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    7. Lu Yu & Jiang Cheng & Tzuting Lin, 2019. "Life insurance lapse behaviour: evidence from China," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(4), pages 653-678, October.
    8. Gemmo, Irina & Götz, Martin, 2016. "Life insurance and demographic change: An empirical analysis of surrender decisions based on panel data," SAFE Working Paper Series 240, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    9. Fabio Baione & Davide Biancalana & Paolo Angelis, 2021. "An application of Sigmoid and Double-Sigmoid functions for dynamic policyholder behaviour," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(1), pages 5-22, June.
    10. Nolte, Sven & Schneider, Judith C., 2017. "Don’t lapse into temptation: a behavioral explanation for policy surrender," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 12-27.
    11. Mathias Valla & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Ayodélé Olympio, 2023. "Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and competing risks in tree-based lapse management strategy," Working Papers hal-03903047, HAL.
    12. Anne MacKay & Maciej Augustyniak & Carole Bernard & Mary R. Hardy, 2017. "Risk Management of Policyholder Behavior in Equity-Linked Life Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(2), pages 661-690, June.
    13. Xavier Milhaud & Christophe Dutang, 2018. "Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach," Post-Print hal-01727669, HAL.
    14. Barsotti, Flavia & Milhaud, Xavier & Salhi, Yahia, 2016. "Lapse risk in life insurance: Correlation and contagion effects among policyholders’ behaviors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 317-331.
    15. Martin Eling & Michael Kochanski, 2013. "Research on lapse in life insurance: what has been done and what needs to be done?," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 392-413, August.
    16. Renuka Sane & Susan Thomas, 2020. "From Participation To Repurchase: Low Income Households And Micro‐insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(3), pages 783-814, September.
    17. Marcus C. Christiansen & Martin Eling & Jan-Philipp Schmidt & Lorenz Zirkelbach, 2016. "Who is Changing Health Insurance Coverage? Empirical Evidence on Policyholder Dynamics," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 269-300, June.
    18. Nadine Gatzert & Gudrun Hoermann & Hato Schmeiser, 2009. "The Impact of the Secondary Market on Life Insurers’ Surrender Profits," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 887-908, December.
    19. Berdin, Elia & Gründl, Helmut & Kubitza, Christian, 2017. "Rising interest rates, lapse risk, and the stability of life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 29/17, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    20. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lee, Hae Kang & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2024. "Aggregate lapsation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02953269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.