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Model Risk Management: Limits and Future of Bayesian Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Pierre Florens

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Christian Gouriéroux

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Alain Monfort

    (CREST-THEMA - CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

Abstract

This paper discusses the use of Bayesian approaches when the models are misspecified (model risk). In particular we explore the limits and future of Bayesian approaches in order to provide answers to the following questions recently asked by the prudential supervision for Finance/Insurance: How to measure model risk? How to use in a coherent way the different misspecified models (as rating models) usually employed within and between financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Florens & Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort, 2019. "Model Risk Management: Limits and Future of Bayesian Approaches," Post-Print hal-02952910, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02952910
    DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.136.0001
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    Cited by:

    1. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2021. "Model risk management: Valuation and governance of pseudo-models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model Risk; Bayesian Approach; Model Choice; Validation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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