Production strategies after the end of milk quotas: an analysis based on bio-economic modeling[Fin des quotas laitiers, contractualisation et stratégies productives : enseignements d’une modélisation bioéconomique]

Milk quotas, introduced in France in 1984, will be ended by 2015. Based on a «bio-economic» model, this paper discusses the main productive and economic implications of this important change of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). We assumed that, with the abolishment of milk quotas, a contracting system of «double volume with different prices» will be implemented between producers and dairy processors. The model maximizes the farm income while taking into account a set of constraints: zootechnical, agronomical, environmental, structural and regulatory. This model, which integrates the risk of price volatility, is applied to four types of farms reflecting a part of the farms' diversity located in West of France. According to the results of this modelling approach, it appears that many dairy farms located in this region have, thanks to changes in their production strategies (intensification, specialization), a large potential to increase milk production, with the same structure. The amount of extra milk which may be produced will depend on the evolution of demand for dairy products and the competitiveness of the dairy industries. For a given farm, these additional quantities depend on the price of milk produced in volume Aand B, the relative prices between agricultural products (milk, beef and cereals) and a possible strengthening of environmental constraints.