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La croissance des villes canadiennes et australiennes guidée par le hasard? Enjeux et mesure de la croissance urbaine aléatoire

Author

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  • Aurélie Lalanne

    (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Martin Zumpe

    (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Cet article apporte des éclaircissements quant à l'existence d'une croissance urbaine aléatoire pour les cas Canadien et Australien. La détection de ces processus passe par un approfondissement du protocole de test en distinguant trois spécifications : marche aléatoire pure, avec dérive, et avec dérive et tendance. L'article démontre que la croissance urbaine comporte effectivement une dimension aléatoire. Les petites aires urbaines y sont plus sensibles et leur croissance dépend exclusivement de chocs. Les grandes aires urbaines et celles qui détiennent des activités économiques métropolitaines, croissent sous l'effet d'une tendance déterministe diluant l'effet des chocs, les rendant moins fragiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélie Lalanne & Martin Zumpe, 2019. "La croissance des villes canadiennes et australiennes guidée par le hasard? Enjeux et mesure de la croissance urbaine aléatoire," Post-Print hal-02640473, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02640473
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    Cited by:

    1. Aurélie Lalanne & Shana Sundstrom & Ahjond Garmestani, 2023. "Discontinuous structure of regional and subregional urban systems: Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France (1800–2015)," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(5), pages 869-884, April.

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