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Consumer sentiment and government confidence: Is there a stable causal relationship?

Author

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  • Nicolas Gérard Vaillant

    (ETHICS EA 7446 - Experience ; Technology & Human Interactions ; Care & Society : - ICL - Institut Catholique de Lille - UCL - Université catholique de Lille)

  • Véronique Flambard

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Nicolas Vaillant

Abstract

Consumer confidence and perceived political confidence are known to play independently a crucial role in the economic growth of a country. Using French monthly economic and political data, we analyse the relationships between the president, the prime minister and consumer confidence during cohabitation and non-cohabitation periods, based on a SUR (seemingly unrelated regression) model. During cohabitation periods, whenever the president's confidence index increased the prime minister index decreased. Further, confidence in the prime minister was useful for predicting consumer confidence. During non-cohabitation periods, consumer confidence helps to forecast both the president's confidence and the prime minister's confidence.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Gérard Vaillant & Véronique Flambard & Nicolas Vaillant, 2014. "Consumer sentiment and government confidence: Is there a stable causal relationship?," Post-Print hal-02512965, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02512965
    DOI: 10.1057/fp.2014.22
    as

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