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Stratégie de promotion des exportations et ajustement macro-économique : quelles marges de manœuvre ?

Author

Listed:
  • Thi Anh-Dao Tran

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Cet article étudie les enjeux en matière d'ajustement associés au choix d'une stratégie de promotion des exportations. Il analyse l'impact sur la production et l'emploi d'une détérioration des termes de l'échange et d'une chute des entrées de capitaux étrangers. En l'absence de contrainte sur les marchés, le réalignement des prix relatifs et la mobilité intersectorielle du travail peuvent aider le pays à s'ajuster. Toutefois, ceci est remis en cause lorsque le pays subit une contrainte d'exportation, la politique d'ajustement aux chocs extérieurs se réduisant dans ce cas à une politique de demande. Le choix d'une orientation vers l'exportation est d'autant plus risqué que le pays est faiblement endetté, ses niveaux de production et d'emploi devenant complètement dépendants des conditions extérieures.

Suggested Citation

  • Thi Anh-Dao Tran, 2001. "Stratégie de promotion des exportations et ajustement macro-économique : quelles marges de manœuvre ?," Post-Print hal-02454745, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02454745
    as

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