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Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025‪

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Piet

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST)

  • Legrand Dunold Fils Saint-Cyr

    (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement)

Abstract

Using data from both the non-salaried contributing farmers' database (COTNS) of the Mutualité Sociale Agricole (MSA, the French agency for farmers' healthcare and social security), and from the 2010 Agricultural Census, this paper provides a projection of the population of French farms in 2025. The authors present the method used to consolidate the COTNS database at the farm level, as well as the "mover-stayer" model used to estimate entry, exit, and size change transition probabilities. The projection shows that, if the observed trends continue, the number of French farms could drop to 342,000 in 2025, a 30 percent decrease compared to 2010 figures.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Piet & Legrand Dunold Fils Saint-Cyr, 2018. "Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025‪," Post-Print hal-01956096, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01956096
    as

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