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Irreversible decision making in contagious animal disease control under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre Gohin

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Olivier Mahul

    (INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

Abstract

L'auteur montre comment la présence d'incertitudes dans l'évolution d'une épidémie animale modifie l'application d'une stratégie de lutte irréversible, telle qu'une campagne de vaccination d'urgence. Une campagne de vaccination précoce s'avère socialement plus efficace qu'une campagne de vaccination tardive, mais la levée de l'incertitude durant l'épizootie peut inverser le résultat lorsque le gain informationnel, appelé quasi-option, est suffisamment important. Ces résultats sont illustrés à partir d'un modèle de simulation d'une épizootie aphteuse en France. La valeur de quasi-option est égale à 13,4 % du coût estimé de la stratégie de lutte optimale.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Gohin & Olivier Mahul, 1997. "Irreversible decision making in contagious animal disease control under uncertainty," Post-Print hal-01931617, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01931617
    as

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