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Choc des termes de l'échange et balance courante : une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998)

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  • Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop

    (CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of temporary terms of trade shocks on the private savings and the current account of the French economy. Using an inter-temporel framework which distinguishes agents' consumption for three types of goods (importables, exportables and non-tradables), an estimation in two stages leads to the calculation of intra-temporal and inter-temporal elasticities of substitution which explain current account fluctuations. The estimated values of these parameters are rela- tively low in France, so that substitution effects do not compensate inter-temporal smooth- ing of consumption effects. Consequently, an adverse and unanticipated terms of trade shock deteriorates the current account of the French economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop, 2001. "Choc des termes de l'échange et balance courante : une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998)," Post-Print hal-01618699, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01618699
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01618699
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    References listed on IDEAS

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