IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01474423.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Which of the real money gap or nominal money gap helped predict inflation in Europe? A retrospective analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Dufrénot

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Roselyne Joyeux
  • Anne Péguin-Feissolle

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The question examined in this paper is the following. Assuming that money played a role in the prediction of inflation, which of the nominal money gap or real money gap did the best job in the European countries? Answering this ques- tion helps us to compare the different strategies undertaken by the central banks in the countries that were members of the EMU. In the countries that participated in the Exchange rate mechanism (ERM) and then adopted the Euro, the policy preferences have been dominated by tacking monetary aggregates, while some non-euro countries preferred to focus on the direct effects of real money growth. The authors use panel data econometrics allowing for heterogeneous short-run and long-run dynamics among the countries. An important result is that the real money gap may be equally informative about future inflation. This plays against the dominant view of a quantitative theory approach of inflation in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrénot & Roselyne Joyeux & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2014. "Which of the real money gap or nominal money gap helped predict inflation in Europe? A retrospective analysis," Post-Print hal-01474423, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01474423
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economie quantitative;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01474423. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.