La dimension spatiale des conjonctures immobilières

The explanation of cyclical price movements on real-estate markets can hardly be purely macro, but in most cases appeal to changes occurred in the local urban structure. Such a « spatial » approach requires a a geographically disaggregated representation of markets, vinculated with their segmentation. This general idea will be illustrated by an analysis of the current boom of housing prices in France, compared with the preceding boom of the late 80's. We shall examine if the spatial dimension, clearly observable in the 80s, is still active in the present boom which, in sharp contrast with the former, concerns the whole range of French towns. Thus, a macro-explanation, relating to some kind of global misadjustment, seems much more adequate than it was for the 80s. But in the larger metropolis, a spatial content of house price dynamics can all the same be identified. Within the Paris area, the ongoing process is less unequal than it was in the 80s, but it does involve a spatial content, corresponding to a new enlargement and reinforcement of « second rank » residential spaces. In those regional metropolis experimenting the highest rises in prices – such as Lille – the process can be analysed as a spatial disconnection between ordinary and superior residential spaces, rather similar to what happened in Paris 15 years ago. In smaller towns, the spatial dimension is much less apparent.