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Exchange rate misalignments and economic growth: a threshold panel approach

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques Mazier

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Nabil Aflouk

Abstract

This study deals with the link between exchange rate misalignments (ERM) and economic growth, for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies on the period 1982-2010. The estimation of equilibrium exchange rate (EER) is based on a FEER approach. The relation "misalignments-growth" is estimated using a PSTR (Panel Smooth Transition Regression) and GMM models. Our main results show that the impact of ERM on economic growth is nonlinear and asymmetric. An overvaluation has a negative impact on growth while an undervaluation sustains growth until an estimated threshold (15.5% for emerging countries and 9% for developed countries). The coefficient is weaker for emerging countries (0.02) than for developed countries (0.08). Due to non linearity and coefficient's value, the undervaluation has a positive effect on growth even beyond the threshold. We also demonstrate that the impact of ERM on growth is positive only in the case of small undervaluation for emerging countries. However, concerning developed countries, the undervaluation have a positive effect on growth even beyond the estimated threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Mazier & Nabil Aflouk, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments and economic growth: a threshold panel approach," Post-Print hal-01367466, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01367466
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Florian Morvillier, 2019. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Post-Print hal-02138677, HAL.
    2. Grekou, Carl, 2015. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-154.
    3. DEGUENONVO, Cédric, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignment in Senegal: effect on growth," MPRA Paper 84338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.
    5. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," Working Papers hal-04141804, HAL.
    6. Nabil Alimi & Nabil Aflouk, 2017. "The threshold effect of oil-price shocks on economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1942-1958.
    7. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Carl Grekou, 2014. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Working Papers hal-04141364, HAL.
    9. Ramos-Herrera María del Carmen, 2022. "How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 199-211, January.

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