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Comment améliorer la prévision des ventes pour le marketing ? Les apports de la théorie du chaos

Author

Listed:
  • Adrien R. Bonache

    (CRGM - Centre de Recherche Clermontois en Gestion et Management - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, EUM Clermont-Ferrand - Ecole Universitaire de Management - Clermont-Ferrand - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

  • Marc Filser

    (IAE Dijon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Dijon - UB - Université de Bourgogne, LEG - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

La littérature en marketing constate un décalage entre les avancées réalisées par les chercheurs qui développent de nouvelles méthodes de prévision des ventes, et l'usage massif de méthodes traditionnelles reposant sur l'hypothèse de linéarité des processus analysés. Cette recherche expose la contribution poten¬tielle de la théorie du chaos à l'amélioration de la prévision des ventes. Une illustration de ces apports est proposée avec une application à la prévision des ventes de consoles de jeux vidéo au Japon. Les résultats mettent en évidence la capacité de la méthode proposée à détecter la présence de chaos dans la série et montrent la possibilité de préciser l'horizon de prévisibilité des ventes [English] The marketing literature highlights a growing discrepancy between advances in research on forecasting methods, and the overwhelming use of more traditional methods relying on the hypothesis of linearity of sales. This research explores the potential contribution of chaos theory to the improvement of sales forecasting. This contribution was shown using Japanese sales of video game consoles. The results confirm the contribution of the proposed method to detect chaos in time series and to determine the sales forecasting horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrien R. Bonache & Marc Filser, 2013. "Comment améliorer la prévision des ventes pour le marketing ? Les apports de la théorie du chaos," Post-Print hal-01346806, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01346806
    as

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