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Politiques monétaires: la marche à suivre

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Stancanelli

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Valérie Chauvin

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Odile Chagny

    (Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA)

  • Hélène Baudchon
  • Gaël Dupont

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The tightening cycle has at last begun in the United States. Bond markets have joined this movement. The next step for central banks is to handle the huge rise of oil prices without derailing the still fragile recovery. Choosing to support growth rather than unnecessarily combat the temporary pick up of inflation should lead the Federal Reserve to a 125 bp increase of the federal funds rate (to 3%). The ECB should tighten its rate only once, by 25 bp. Counting on a softening of the housing bubble, the Bank of England should interrupt its tightening cycle after two additional moves. No move is expected from the Bank of Japan because the Japanese economy has not yet ended deflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Stancanelli & Valérie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Odile Chagny & Hélène Baudchon & Gaël Dupont & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plan, 2004. "Politiques monétaires: la marche à suivre," Post-Print hal-01218110, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01218110
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.091.0163
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01218110v1
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