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Assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on brittany : a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre Gohin

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST, AGROCAMPUS OUEST)

  • Arnaud Rault

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST, AGROCAMPUS OUEST)

Abstract

Outbreaks of animal diseases such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) are of great concern for agriculture. In this paper, we quantify the potential dynamic impacts of such a disease on Brittany, a French region with an important livestock sector. In order to do this, we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that allows us to measure the impacts on the livestock sectors and downstream food industries. We study the impacts of a FMD outbreak including the culling infected animals, a temporary decline in demand, and restrictions on movements of live animals and meats during the FMD outbreak period. Our results show that economic losses following this disease are spread over many periods even with a one-time shock. We also find that the impacts on the various primary sectors and downstream food sectors are quite different, depending on their initial trade position. Our general equilibrium results show the great incidence of potential constraints affecting factor markets. Capital and wage constraints severely increase the aggregate costs of such disease. These results challenge the definition of a simple efficient management policy for this disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Gohin & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on brittany : a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis," Post-Print hal-01208909, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01208909
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.01.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Cariappa, A G Adeeth & Chandel, B S & Sankhala, Gopal & Mani, Veena & R, Sendhil & Dixit, Anil Kumar & Meena, B S, 2022. "Anionic mineral mixture prevents milk fever and improves farmer income: evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 35(1), June.
    2. Longworth, Natasha & Jongeneel, Roel A. & Saatkamp, Helmut W., 2021. "Management of Disease-triggered Shocks in Complex Value Chains: An Ex Ante Analysis of Market Effects of HPAI Control in the Dutch Egg Supply Chain," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 12(03), September.
    3. Osseni, Abdel Fawaz & Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2022. "Optimal Biosecurity Policy with Heterogeneous Farmers," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(2), May.
    4. Hennessy, David A. & Rault, Arnaud, 2023. "On systematically insufficient biosecurity actions and policies to manage infectious animal disease," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).

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