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Exchange rate uncertainty and trade flows between the unites states and china

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  • Marilyne Huchet

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST, AGROCAMPUS OUEST)

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (Center for Research on International Economics, Department of Economics - University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee)

Abstract

This article assesses the impact of the RMB-dollar exchange rate and volatility on U.S. agricultural exports to and imports from China. Two measures of volatility are employed: one based on the moving standard deviation of the real RMB-dollar rate, the other a GARCH-based measure which yields more significant results. We find that exchange rate volatility has a significantly positive long-run effect only on export earnings of the nonagricultural sector. On the other hand, depreciation of the dollar has an expected long-run effect on the import value of the nonagricultural sector and on export earnings of the agricultural sector. No matter which model we consider, the level of economic activity in both countries seems to be the major long-run determinant of trade flows in both directions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marilyne Huchet & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2013. "Exchange rate uncertainty and trade flows between the unites states and china," Post-Print hal-01208883, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01208883
    DOI: 10.2753/CES1097-1475460202
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Trade between U.K. and China: An Asymmetric Analysis," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 41-65, January.
    2. Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Mark Wohar, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and India–US commodity trade: evidence of the third country effect," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 359-398, September.
    3. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.
    4. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The bilateral trade flows of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1369-1398, December.
    5. Joseph Dery Nyeadi & Oswald Atiga & Charles Amoyea Atogenzoya, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Export: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 41-48, July.

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