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PECO : au ralenti

Author

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  • Marion Cochard

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Le ralentissement de l'activité s'est poursuivi dans les pays d'Europe centrale et orientale au second semestre 2012, à la fois du fait de l'intégration commerciale et financière avec la zone euro et des politiques de restriction budgétaire. À la fin de l'année 2012, aucun pays de la zone, à l'exception de la Pologne, n'avait retrouvé son niveau d'activité d'avant-crise. La persistance d'indicateurs conjoncturels au plus bas et de perspectives moroses pour la zone euro annoncent une année 2013 à l'image de 2012 (+0,7 % en 2012 sur l'ensemble de la zone), avant un léger mieux en 2014. Toujours tirée par le haut niveau du prix des matières premières, la Russie devra quant à elle faire face à un risque de surchauffe en limitant l'accès au crédit, ralentissant ainsi la croissance en dessous de 4 % à l'horizon de la prévision.

Suggested Citation

  • Marion Cochard, 2013. "PECO : au ralenti," Post-Print hal-00972732, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00972732
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.129.0209
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-00972732
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