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A solution for forecasting pet chips prices for both short-term and long-term price forcasting, using genetic programming

Author

Listed:
  • Mojtaba Sedigh Fazli

    (Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon)

  • Jean-Fabrice Lebraty

    (Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon)

Abstract

Nowadays, forecasting what will happen in economic environments plays a crucial role. We showed that in PET market how a neuro-fuzzy hybrid model can assist the managers in decision-making. In this research, the target is to forecast the same item through another intelligent tool which obeys the evolutionary processing mechanisms. Again, the item for prediction here is PET (Poly Ethylene Terephthalate) which is the raw material for textile industries and it is highly sensitive against oil price fluctuations and also some other factors such as the demand and supply ratio. The main idea is coming through AHIS model which was presented by Mojtaba Sedigh Fazli and J.F. Lebraty in 2013. In this communication, the hybrid module is substituted with genetic programming. Finally, the simulation has been conducted and compared to three different answers which were presented before the results show that Genetic programming results (acting like hybrid model) which support both Fuzzy Systems and Neural Networks, satisfy the research question considerably.

Suggested Citation

  • Mojtaba Sedigh Fazli & Jean-Fabrice Lebraty, 2013. "A solution for forecasting pet chips prices for both short-term and long-term price forcasting, using genetic programming," Post-Print hal-00859457, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00859457
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-lyon3.hal.science/hal-00859457
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    1. Mojtaba Sedigh Fazli & Jean-Fabrice Lebraty, 2013. "A comparative study on forecasting polyester chips prices for 15 days, using different hybrid intelligent systems," Post-Print hal-00859445, HAL.
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      Keywords

      Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy Model; Efficient Market Hypothesis; Financial Forecasting; Chemicals; Artificial Intelligence; Genetic Programming; Decision Support System; Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy Model.;
      All these keywords.

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