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A polynomial expansion to approximate the ultimate ruin probability in the compound Poisson ruin model

Author

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  • Pierre-Olivier Goffard

    (AXA France - AXA, I2M - Institut de Mathématiques de Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stéphane Loisel

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Denys Pommeret

    (I2M - Institut de Mathématiques de Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

A numerical method to approximate ruin probabilities is proposed within the frame of a compound Poisson ruin model. The defective density function associated to the ruin probability is projected in an orthogonal polynomial system. These polynomials are orthogonal with respect to a probability measure that belongs to Natural Exponential Family with Quadratic Variance Function (NEF-QVF). The method is convenient in at least four ways. Firstly, it leads to a simple analytical expression of the ultimate ruin probability. Secondly, the implementation does not require strong computer skills. Thirdly, our approximation method does not necessitate any preliminary discretisation step of the claim sizes distribution. Finally, the coefficients of our formula do not depend on initial reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Olivier Goffard & Stéphane Loisel & Denys Pommeret, 2015. "A polynomial expansion to approximate the ultimate ruin probability in the compound Poisson ruin model," Post-Print hal-00853680, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00853680
    DOI: 10.1016/j.cam.2015.06.003
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00853680v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickson, David C. M., 1992. "On the distribution of the surplus prior to ruin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 191-207, October.
    2. Hans Gerber & Elias Shiu, 1998. "On the Time Value of Ruin," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 48-72.
    3. Gzyl, Henryk & Novi-Inverardi, Pier-Luigi & Tagliani, Aldo, 2013. "Determination of the probability of ultimate ruin by maximum entropy applied to fractional moments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 457-463.
    4. Panjer, Harry H., 1981. "Recursive Evaluation of a Family of Compound Distributions," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 22-26, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Olivier Goffard & Stéphane Loisel & Denys Pommeret, 2017. "Polynomial Approximations for Bivariate Aggregate Claims Amount Probability Distributions," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 151-174, March.

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