IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00715485.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

More than a Dummy: The Probability of Failure, Survival and Acquisition of Private Firms in Financial Distress

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas B. Astebro

    (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • J. K. Winter

Abstract

We discuss three methodological issues concerning forecasts of the outcome of financial distress. First, we argue that rather than using a binary model the outcome of financial distress should be modeled using a multinomial specification that distinguishes between failure, survival as going concern, and acquisition. We also argue for a random rather than matched-pair sampling technique to better reflect decision making reality. Finally, we investigate the value of using industry-mean adjusted regressors. We find that the binary bankruptcy model is mis-specified relative to the multinomial model, that the matched sampling technique overstates model accuracy and that industry specific intercepts have better explanatory power than industry-adjusted regressors.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas B. Astebro & J. K. Winter, 2012. "More than a Dummy: The Probability of Failure, Survival and Acquisition of Private Firms in Financial Distress," Post-Print hal-00715485, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00715485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carmen Cotei & Joseph Farhat, 2018. "The M&A exit outcomes of new, young firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 545-567, March.
    2. Carmen Cotei & Joseph Farhat & Indu Khurana, 2022. "The impact of policy uncertainty on the M&A exit of startup firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 99-120, January.
    3. Kaiser, Ulrich & Kuhn, Johan M., 2020. "The value of publicly available, textual and non-textual information for startup performance prediction," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    4. Stéphane Esquerré, 2019. "How do judges judge? Evidence of local effect on French bankruptcy judgments," Working Papers hal-02291688, HAL.
    5. Manuel Rico & Naresh R. Pandit & Francisco Puig, 2021. "SME insolvency, bankruptcy, and survival: an examination of retrenchment strategies," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 111-126, June.
    6. Kaiser, Ulrich & Kuhn, Johan Moritz, 2020. "Value of Publicly Available, Textual and Non-textuThe al Information for Startup Performance Prediction," IZA Discussion Papers 13029, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Salwa Kessioui & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2023. "A Bibliometric Overview of the State-of-the-Art in Bankruptcy Prediction Methods and Applications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Emilios Galariotis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Marios Menexiadis & Constantin Zo (ed.), Governance and Financial Performance Current Trends and Perspectives, chapter 6, pages 123-153, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kočenda, Evžen & Shida, Yoshisada, 2021. "Distressed acquisitions: Evidence from European emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 962-990.
    9. XU Peng, 2021. "Population Aging and Small Business Exits," Discussion papers 21091, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Nina Ponikvar & Katja Zajc Kejžar & Darja Peljhan, 2018. "The role of financial constraints for alternative firm exit modes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 85-103, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00715485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.