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Empirical Distributions of Beliefs Under Imperfect Observation

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Gossner

    (PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, MEDS, Northwestern University - Northwestern University [Evanston])

  • Tristan Tomala

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Let (xn)n be a process with values in a finite set X and law P, and let yn = f(xn) be a function of the process. At stage n, the conditional distribution pn = P(xn | x1,...,xn–1), element of = (X), is the belief that a perfect observer, who observes the process online, holds on its realization at stage n. A statistician observing the signals y1,...,yn holds a belief en = P(pn | x1,...,xn) () on the possible predictions of the perfect observer. Given X and f, we characterize the set of limits of expected empirical distributions of the process (en) when P ranges over all possible laws of (xn)n.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Gossner & Tristan Tomala, 2006. "Empirical Distributions of Beliefs Under Imperfect Observation," Post-Print hal-00487960, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00487960
    DOI: 10.1287/moor.1050.0174
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Cabrales & Olivier Gossner & Roberto Serrano, 2013. "Entropy and the Value of Information for Investors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 360-377, February.
    2. Olivier Gossner & Rida Laraki & Tristan Tomala, 2004. "Maxmin computation and optimal correlation in repeated games with signals," Working Papers hal-00242940, HAL.
    3. Hernández, Penélope & Urbano, Amparo, 2008. "Codification schemes and finite automata," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 395-409, November.
    4. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2008. "A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation, and Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 201-236, March.
    5. Olivier Gossner & Tristan Tomala, 2007. "Secret Correlation in Repeated Games with Imperfect Monitoring," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 413-424, May.
    6. Gossner, Olivier & Hörner, Johannes, 2010. "When is the lowest equilibrium payoff in a repeated game equal to the minmax payoff?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 63-84, January.
    7. Andrew Caplin & Daniel J. Martin, 2020. "Framing, Information, and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 27265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Olivier Gossner & Jöhannes Horner, 2006. "When is the individually rational payoff in a repeated game equal to the minmax payoff?," Discussion Papers 1440, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    9. Le Treust, Maël & Tomala, Tristan, 2019. "Persuasion with limited communication capacity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    10. Olivier Gossner & Penélope Hernández & Ron Peretz, 2016. "The complexity of interacting automata," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 45(1), pages 461-496, March.

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