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Surrender triggers in life insurance: what main features affect the surrender behavior in a classical economic context?

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Milhaud

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon, Axa Cessions - AXA)

  • Stéphane Loisel

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Véronique Maume-Deschamps

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

Abstract

This paper shows that some policy features are crucial to explain the decision of the policyholder to surrender her contract. We point it out by applying two segmentation models to a life insurance portfolio: the Logistic Regression model and the Classification And Regression Trees model. Protection as well as Savings lines of business are impacted, and results clearly explicit that the profit benefit option is highly discrimi- nant. We develop the study with endowment products. First we present the models and discuss their assumptions and limits. Then we test different policy features and policyholder's characteristics to be lapse triggers so as to segment a portfolio in risk classes regarding the surrender choice : duration and profit benefit option are essential. Finally, we explore the main dfferences of both models in terms of operational results.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Milhaud & Stéphane Loisel & Véronique Maume-Deschamps, 2011. "Surrender triggers in life insurance: what main features affect the surrender behavior in a classical economic context?," Post-Print hal-00450003, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00450003
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00450003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Valla & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Ayodélé Olympio, 2023. "Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and competing risks in tree-based lapse management strategies," Post-Print hal-03903047, HAL.
    2. Fabrice Borel-Mathurin & Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix & Quentin Guibert & Stéphane Loisel, 2018. "Main Determinants of Profit-Sharing Policy in the French Life Insurance Industry," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(3), pages 420-455, July.
    3. Ballotta, Laura & Eberlein, Ernst & Schmidt, Thorsten & Zeineddine, Raghid, 2021. "Fourier based methods for the management of complex life insurance products," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 320-341.
    4. Christophe Dutang, 2012. "The customer, the insurer and the market," Post-Print hal-01616152, HAL.
    5. Gemmo, Irina & Götz, Martin, 2016. "Life insurance and demographic change: An empirical analysis of surrender decisions based on panel data," ICIR Working Paper Series 24/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    6. Francesca Biagini & Tobias Huber & Johannes G. Jaspersen & Andrea Mazzon, 2021. "Estimating extreme cancellation rates in life insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 971-1000, December.
    7. Lu Yu & Jiang Cheng & Tzuting Lin, 2019. "Life insurance lapse behaviour: evidence from China," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(4), pages 653-678, October.
    8. Guillou, Armelle & Loisel, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles, 2013. "Estimation of the parameters of a Markov-modulated loss process in insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 388-404.
    9. victor Lyonnet, 2018. "Asset-liability management in life insurance: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2018-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    10. Gemmo, Irina & Götz, Martin, 2016. "Life insurance and demographic change: An empirical analysis of surrender decisions based on panel data," SAFE Working Paper Series 240, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

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