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Détermination de la date optimale de renouvellement des réseaux urbains d'eau potable

Author

Listed:
  • Jihad Elnaboulsi

    (CRESE - Centre de REcherches sur les Stratégies Economiques (UR 3190) - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE])

  • Olivier Alexandre

    (UMR GSP - Gestion des services publics - ENGEES - École Nationale du Génie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement de Strasbourg - CEMAGREF - Centre national du machinisme agricole, du génie rural, des eaux et forêts)

Abstract

Many approaches, both reactive and predictive, have been developed for modeling and analyzing breaks in deteriorating water distribution systems. Descriptive statistical models and predictive probabilistic models have been created for this purpose. The Proportional Hazards Model, proposed by Cox in 1972, is a probabilistic predictive model, and is applied to predict failure probabilities in deteriorating water pipes. It shows the effect of the ageing process independently from the stress phenomena. It possesses high flexibility for analyzing issues concerning the effect of ageing on the break rate. Economic studies have been performed to determine an optimum replacement time for breaking mains. In this paper, using the failure probabilities of individual pipes provided by the proportional hazards model, we elaborate a new economical approach to renewing drinking water pipes and to calculate the optimum replacement time. We also study in more detail and evaluated the different costs related to pipe failure. This methodology to renew water distribution system has been applied to nine blocks in collaboration with the Urban Community of Strasbourg (CUS) and the Water Company of the suburbs of Paris (CEB).

Suggested Citation

  • Jihad Elnaboulsi & Olivier Alexandre, 1997. "Détermination de la date optimale de renouvellement des réseaux urbains d'eau potable," Post-Print hal-00447928, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00447928
    DOI: 10.4296/cwrj2203327
    as

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