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Conceptualizing the formation and role of expectations before 1950: George Katona's thought

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  • Pierrick Dechaux

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article analyzes Katona's theory of expectations and compares it to that of Keynes and Hicks. It discusses the implicit and explicit debates on the introduction of psychology in economic theory. The aim of this paper is twofold: define Katona's thought and examine the impact of this work on the debate on expectations in macroeconomics. This paper shows that Katona is the only author, to our knowledge, who develops both an empirical and theoretical research program on expectations that borrows from the epistemology of Keynes. While rediscovering Katona's work, this paper contributes to highlight the forgotten methodology that initiated the construction of confidence (or sentiment) indexes. It also discusses the implicit and explicit debates on the introduction of psychology in economic theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierrick Dechaux, 2015. "Conceptualizing the formation and role of expectations before 1950: George Katona's thought," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01159206, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01159206
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01159206
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    Keywords

    psychology; expectations theories; expectations measures; Macroeconomics; George Katona; Keynes; Hicks; psychologie; théories des anticipations; mesures des anticipations; Macroéconomie;
    All these keywords.

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