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An economic view of carbon allowances market

Author

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  • Marius-Cristian Frunza

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sagacarbon - Sagacarbon SA)

  • Dominique Guegan

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

The aim of this work is to bring an econometric approach upon the CO2 market. We identify the specificities of this market, and regarding the carbon as a commodity. We investigate the econometric particularities of CO2 prices behavior and their result of the calibration. We apprehend and explain the reasons of the non-Gaussian behavior of this market focusing mainly upon jump diffusion and generalized hyperbolic distributions. We test these results for the risk modeling of a structured product specific to the carbon market, the swap between two carbon instruments : The European Union Allowances and the Certiified Emission Reductions. We estimate the counterparty risk for this kind of transaction and evaluate the impact of different models upon the risk measure and the allocated capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius-Cristian Frunza & Dominique Guegan, 2009. "An economic view of carbon allowances market," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00390676, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00390676
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00390676
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    Cited by:

    1. Marius-Cristian Frunza & Dominique Guegan & Antonin Lassoudière, 2010. "Dynamic factor analysis of carbon allowances prices: From classic Arbitrage Pricing Theory to Switching Regimes," Post-Print halshs-00505145, HAL.
    2. Marius-Cristian Frunza & Dominique Guegan & Antonin Lassoudière, 2010. "Statistical evidence of tax fraud on the carbon allowances market," Post-Print halshs-00523458, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon; Normal Inverse Gaussian; CER; EUA; swap.; swap; Carbone; distribution NIG;
    All these keywords.

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