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De usu artis conjectandi in jure : quid de oeconomia (politica) ?

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  • Pierre-Charles Pradier

    (SAMOS - Statistique Appliquée et MOdélisation Stochastique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Les questions discutées dans l'Ars Conjectandi n'intéressent pas les économistes avant la transformation de la discipline en « science des choix », dans les années 1930. L'ouvrage de Jacques Bernoulli, comme certains travaux de ses neveux Nicolas et Daniel, marquent pourtant la naissance de la rationalité économique dans son sens le plus large. Jacques ébauche la rationalité décisionnelle, Nicolas cherche à concilier les raisons des parties mues par le même bon sens mercantile, par ce même intérêt bien compris que Daniel illustre d'exemples. Le programme de recherche dessiné par la famille Bernoulli occupe aujourd'hui les économistes. Si certains héritiers de Keynes expriment encore des doutes sur la décision, doutes liés à l'existence de l'incertitude, quelques fondamentalistes considèrent la théorie de la décision économique (bayésienne) comme achevée. Ceux-ci conçoivent alors l'économie comme la représentation d'un monde peuplé de décideurs bayésiens égoïstes. Entre les deux se développent le champ de la stochastique moderne, et la réflexion sur ses usages.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Charles Pradier, 2006. "De usu artis conjectandi in jure : quid de oeconomia (politica) ?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00274325, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00274325
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00274325
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sophie Jallais & Pierre-Charles Pradier, 2005. "The Allais Paradox and its Immediate Consequences for Expected Utility Theory," Post-Print halshs-00311396, HAL.
    2. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    3. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 279-279.
    4. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1952. "The Expected-Utility Hypothesis and the Measurability of Utility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(6), pages 463-463.
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